Do Enemy Units Have an Unfair Advantage?

Awhile back, I posted an article titled "Sweet Spot Theory Debunked."  It was an example of confirmation bias--people tending to find confirmation in beliefs they already hold.  General Dogsworth linked this theory of sweet spots with another popular players' theory: that enemy units have a better chance of scoring direct or critical hits than players do.  Here's a quote from the General:

I hope you ALSO bear this in mind the next time you run into someone who is insisting that the AI has a better chance of inflicting Direct or Critical Hits than you do.  

However, there has been no evidence offered up in support of this fair-play stance--in fact, just the opposite.  Many players are convinced from personal experience that enemy units have an unfair advantage in battle, and some have provided limited evidence of this.  Here is a thread on the official Zynga E&A forums where players are complaining about this unfairness.

Two Scenarios

Here's a scenario: a player pits 5 Talon Tanks versus 5 Kodiak EXO Infantry.  Who wins?  At first thought, Talon Tanks should win because tanks are "great" versus infantry, while infantry are "poor" versus tanks.  However, Talon Tanks are only tier 6 while Kodiaks are tier 7, giving a tier edge to the Kodiaks.  Furthermore, Kodiaks have base strength of 650, while Talon Tanks have base strength of 550.  Thus, the battle is not as clear cut as first thought.  Which factors are more important here: being "great" versus another unit type or having tier and strength advantages?

An easier scenario: 5 Talon Tanks versus 5 Advanced Soldiers.  Here, both unit types are tier 6, and Talon Tanks have a strength advantage over Advanced Soldiers by 550 to 350.  Surely, the Talon Tanks should demolish the Advanced Soldiers without taking much damage in return.  Try it yourself and see what happens.

Here's an example of how one player, Tamiyah, fared when she invaded a neighbor.  When she pitted 5 Talons versus 5 Kodiaks, she destroyed all Kodiaks but lost 3 Talons.  Is that reasonable?

Fairness

These scenarios don't really address fairness.  The first scenario concerns what factors are more important in battle, while the second concerns whether the game battle logic makes sense and to what degree.

For fairness, the key question is: What happens if we reverse the units for player and computer AI?  If I pitted my own Kodiaks or Advanced Soldiers versus the computer AI's Talons, would the results of the battle be flipped?  As a side note, does it matter whether the computer AI is controlling another player's units (like in PVP or World Domination) or other units (like in quests and Campaign Mastery)?

Back to Tamiyah's example above.  When the player reversed the situation, she failed to destroy any Talons and lost all her Kodiaks.  Not quite the same result as before, huh?  Of course, this is just one example.

I'll follow my own battles more closely to see whether the General's fair-play stance holds and report my results.

Unfairness

Suppose things really are unfair.  It would be an outrage to players, some of whom presumably fork over real hard-earned cash for Empire Points.  Why would Zynga do this?

If you've played Empires & Allies for long and have a mind for business, technology, and conspiracies, perhaps you've contemplated whether some of the puzzling things going on in the game are due to plain incompetence or planned profit maximization.  Most likely a blend of both, I believe--this is a topic I'll expand upon greatly in the future.

You might call it Zynga's Planned Incompetence for Profit Maximization, PIPM.  That sounds like one of those many acronyms for U.S. government bailout programs (TAF, TARP, PPIP, anyone?).  A simpler acronym is PIPs, Planned Incompetence for Profits.  A somewhat "inappropriate" but yet-so-appropriate acronym is PIMPs, Planned Incompetence for Making Profits.

Why would Zynga do this?  The company must think the vast majority of players are too oblivious, distracted, or stupid to notice the unfairness.  They must think that enough players--especially the "whales"--develop feelings of frustration and military inadequacy enough to the point of spending more Empire Points to get better fighting units and upgrades.